TV’s may be staying dumb and not getting much smarter

Last week’s global conference on the future of “integrated TV” in Amsterdam saw an interesting reversal of one stream of conventional wisdom on the future of television
Manufacturers in particular have long believed that it is the destiny of the television set to become “smarter”, with full super-fast broadband access, and with a range of accompanying “apps” that enable deep exploration of fab facts associated with the broadcast stream. They also see the main television screen as the focal point for “social TV”, ie real time messaging with your friends and family via Facebook or IM.

Three things are conspiring to frustrate this vision of the future.
Firstly, the refusal of “live TV” to go away. The number of minutes we spend watching TV is still rising (up to 242 minutes per day) , 85% of which is live TV. This is a figure that has remained stubbornly the same for the last 5 years, despite the fact that 50% of us now own DVR’s. We want to watch TV live and now, and not have the effort of controlling it.

The second reason the TV is for TV and not other things is that it’s often not just our choice. More than 50% of viewing is still “shared” viewing with others in the room. If our wives want to watch Eastenders what chance do we have to play with the Top Gear app?

And the final reason for the likely failure of the smart “big screen” is the rapid advance of the smart “medium” screen.

11% of us now own tablets, up from 2% a year ago. And 17% of us say we will buy one in the next 12 months. Zero to 30% penetration in two years is good going.
The big surprise on tablet usage is the amount that is in the home (87%) and when watching TV (68%).

All of a sudden there is a personal, alternative screen sitting on our audience’s laps that they can turn to in order to explore, respond, or just chat.

And that’s just what they are doing. Our betting - learn about tablets rather than smart TV’s, that’s where the testing efforts should go.

Mike Colling, Managing Director