Bearing in mind prediction is very difficult, especially about the future; who could have foreseen the demise of the News of the World in such torrid circumstances, it’s still worth a crack.
So here are a few pretty safe 2012 predictions - famous last words! Not surprisingly, it’s going to be a big year for TV. London 2012 Olympics, Paralympics, Euro 2012, and the digital switch over are going to make 2012 a particularly interesting year. Adam Crozier is talking down the revenue uplift but I’d have thought that they will add significantly to ITV’s coffers to enable him to make new investments in programme production. Radio and outdoor will do okay again through the Olympics’ effect although community radio will have a devil of a time surviving, however, press will continue to fall as retail continues to feel the strain. Only the Metro is in for an Olympics windfall possibly in the region of £5m.
One thing that won’t be difficult to predict is that there will a lot of happy people at Facebook. The likely $100bn internet public offering will make 1,000 people into millionaires. Thinking about social media, multi social media networks will become more popular. The improved quality of cameras in mobile phones will make the video and visual communication more compelling than just 140 characters. More significantly there will be greater convergence between social media activity and mobile devices and the need for clients’ web sites to be mobile friendly will move from a ‘nice to have’ to an absolute necessity.
Have a great 2012!
Ian Prager, Planning Director
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