Does the Jubilee presage a summer of poor results?

Two months ago our newsletter highlighted the potential risk to response from a summer of partying. We warned that the Jubilee, Euros and Olympics could prove significantly more interesting for UK consumers than the allure of many marketing messages.

As I write this on the Thursday after the Jubilee it seems we were right. We have taken a selection of results, across a range of sectors, from retail to media owners, from travel to charities.
Three big learning’s emerge.

Firstly- the scale was about what we expected. It varied by client, but ranged from 30% to 50% decline in response across the weekend.

Secondly- the impact was very short lived. The down turn didn’t really happen until Monday. Saturday and Sunday saw some short fall, but very limited compared with Monday & Tuesday when the whole world seemed to be out to lunch. Wednesday we saw evidence of hangovers, but no mass absenteeism as results climbed back to approach normal. On Thursday morning all the evidence is of a return to near normality.

Finally- the impact vary significantly by channel (and thus by inference by audience) Phone response saw the largest falls- up to 85% down on comparable periods, with mobile, web and retail sales seeing the smallest impact.

Our conclusions- we are actually taking heart from this data set. Our view is that with careful channel management and very careful timing the impact of response downturns this summer can be managed. Coupled with selection of media for value there should be opportunities for very specific investments that may yield additional growth at the expense of competitors. Do call if you want to discuss further.

Mike Colling, Managing Director

MC&C 2012 Predictions

Bearing in mind prediction is very difficult, especially about the future; who could have foreseen the demise of the News of the World in such torrid circumstances, it’s still worth a crack.

So here are a few pretty safe 2012 predictions - famous last words! Not surprisingly, it’s going to be a big year for TV. London 2012 Olympics, Paralympics, Euro 2012, and the digital switch over are going to make 2012 a particularly interesting year. Adam Crozier is talking down the revenue uplift but I’d have thought that they will add significantly to ITV’s coffers to enable him to make new investments in programme production. Radio and outdoor will do okay again through the Olympics’ effect although community radio will have a devil of a time surviving, however, press will continue to fall as retail continues to feel the strain. Only the Metro is in for an Olympics windfall possibly in the region of £5m.

One thing that won’t be difficult to predict is that there will a lot of happy people at Facebook. The likely $100bn internet public offering will make 1,000 people into millionaires. Thinking about social media, multi social media networks will become more popular. The improved quality of cameras in mobile phones will make the video and visual communication more compelling than just 140 characters. More significantly there will be greater convergence between social media activity and mobile devices and the need for clients’ web sites to be mobile friendly will move from a ‘nice to have’ to an absolute necessity.

Have a great 2012!

Ian Prager, Planning Director